Timor-Leste: Buffalo blues

The Economist - August 9, 2007

The new government has a controversial birth and a shaky start

Dili - Ever since peaceful parliamentary elections on June 30th, an atmosphere of apprehension has hung over Timor-Leste's capital Dili. Neither the outgoing ruling party, Fretilin, nor the newly formed CNRT, led by Xanana Gusmão, hero of the resistance to Indonesian independence, won an outright majority. It was stalemate.

"If two buffaloes fight they will produce a baby called 'Crisis'", says José Belo, a journalist who spent his youth as a guerrilla fighting the Indonesian occupation and in prison. Like many others, he feels let down by the older generation of leaders. He had hoped Fretilin and CNRT would join a unity government.

So did José Ramos-Horta, president since winning elections in May. But his month-long attempt to broker an inclusive government failed. So on August 8th he ended the deadlock by swearing in Mr Gusmão, a long-term political ally and former president, as prime minister.

Mr Gusmão had forged a coalition with three other centre-left parties. Together they won a narrow 51% majority of the votes, and 37 of the 65 seats in parliament. Mr Gusmão's main rival, Mari Alkatiri, Fretilin's leader and a former prime minister, denounced Mr Ramos-Horta's decision. Fretilin, he said, would not co-operate with an "illegal and unconstitutional" government. The constitution is open to interpretation and he argues that Fretilin, as the party with the largest number of votes (29%), had the right to be asked first to form a government - even a minority one.

Fretilin said it will go to the villages and call on voters to fight the decision through non-violent means. But some of its supporters have already vented their anger on the streets. Groups of angry marauding young men armed with stones and slingshots ran amok, setting up roadblocks and torching buildings.

The country has been in a political limbo ever since last year when deadly clashes between rival factions in the security forces led to a total breakdown of law and order. Now security is mainly in the hands of United Nations police and Australian and New Zealand peacekeepers, who used teargas and rubber bullets to deter the crowds.

The new government will survive the violent protests. But the chances that it will last a full five-year term are slim. The coalition of parties is a loose alliance based on shared distrust of the clique that dominates Fretilin and on personal loyalty to Mr Gusmão.

But Mr Gusmão is no longer the trusted, unifying figure of the independence struggle of the 1990s. He still needs to prove himself at the head of an inexperienced government. One of the tests will be whether the estimated 100,000 displaced people, amounting to 10% of the population, many living in tented camps, feel safe enough to return home. But if Fretilin persists in its decision to obstruct the government, instability will persist. The fighting buffaloes are still at it.